Lesson 4 of 4 Math checked Facts checked against sources on 2 October 2026 11 min

Games and betting players, trends 2024 to 2026, and how to crack the cases

The main players, the deals and rule changes of 2024 to 2026 (take-privates, new consoles, app store rulings, tax rises, prediction markets and bans), typical prompts, traps and drills.

Industry brief, with a one-minute summary: Video games and betting

Firm processes and online tests change from year to year and differ by office. Use this to prepare, and confirm the exact current steps on the firm's own careers page.

Key takeaways

Games and betting cases usually ask how to grow players or revenue, whether a game or market is worth entering, how to answer a change in fees or tax, or whether to buy a studio or an operator.
Common traps: Reaching for a generic framework instead of the real driver: the value of a player against the cost of winning them, the share taken by stores or tax, and the rules.
Big deals and take-privates: Microsoft completed its USD 68.7 billion purchase of Activision Blizzard in October 2023.
A new console cycle: Nintendo's Switch 2 launched on 5 June 2025 and reached 23.68 million units shipped by June 2026.
The biggest launch is still to come: Take-Two's Grand Theft Auto VI is set for 19 November 2026, after moving from May 2026.

Key idea

Games and betting cases usually ask how to grow players or revenue, whether a game or market is worth entering, how to answer a change in fees or tax, or whether to buy a studio or an operator. Start with customer economics (cost to win against value over a lifetime), then the share taken by platforms or governments, then the rules that may change. A deal is only as good as the hits or the licences it buys.

Examples of games and betting companies (examples only, not a ranking)

Examples of games and betting companies (examples only, not a ranking)
Type	Examples
Publishers and studios	Tencent, Sony Interactive Entertainment, Microsoft (Xbox and Activision Blizzard), Nintendo, Electronic Arts, Take-Two (Rockstar), NetEase, Ubisoft, Scopely (owned by Savvy Games Group), Capcom
Platforms and stores	Apple App Store, Google Play, Steam (Valve), Epic Games Store, PlayStation Store, Xbox Store, Nintendo eShop
Sportsbooks and online casinos	Flutter (FanDuel, Paddy Power, Sisal, Snai), DraftKings, Entain (Ladbrokes, and BetMGM with MGM Resorts), Bet365, Betway
Lotteries	Allwyn (UK National Lottery, OPAP in Greece, majority owner of PrizePicks), state lotteries in the US, Singapore Pools
Casino resorts	Las Vegas Sands (Marina Bay Sands, Macau), MGM Resorts (MGM Osaka), Wynn Resorts (Wynn Al Marjan), Galaxy Entertainment

So-what

Gulf sovereign money, through Saudi Arabia's PIF and Savvy Games Group, became one of the biggest buyers in games, while betting consolidated into a few global groups with many local brands.

Trends 2024 to 2026 (checked 2 October 2026)

Big deals and take-privates: Microsoft completed its USD 68.7 billion purchase of Activision Blizzard in October 2023. PIF, Silver Lake and Affinity Partners completed the purchase of Electronic Arts at USD 210 a share, about USD 55 billion including debt, on 4 August 2026. Tencent paid EUR 1.16 billion for 26.32 percent of Ubisoft's new Vantage Studios, completed in November 2025.
A new console cycle: Nintendo's Switch 2 launched on 5 June 2025 and reached 23.68 million units shipped by June 2026. Microsoft's Xbox revenue fell 7 percent in its year to June 2026, with hardware down 29 percent.
The biggest launch is still to come: Take-Two's Grand Theft Auto VI is set for 19 November 2026, after moving from May 2026. Take-Two said 78 percent of its revenue in the year to March 2026 was recurrent player spending.
Store fees fell under legal pressure: the US Epic v. Apple rulings opened the way to links to cheaper web shops, Apple cut EU commissions from October 2026, and Google cut Play fees in the US, the UK and Europe from June 2026.
Betting taxes rose: the UK raised online casino duty from 21 to 40 percent in April 2026, New Jersey, Maryland and Illinois raised US rates in 2025, and Entain booked a GBP 488 million impairment linked to the UK increases.
Prediction markets arrived: exchanges regulated by the US commodities regulator began offering contracts on sports results in 2025, FanDuel and DraftKings launched their own prediction products at the end of 2025, and federal appeals courts split in 2026 on whether states can stop them.
Markets closed by law: India banned online money games in 2025, and Brazil banned fixed-odds betting by provisional measure on 25 September 2026, less than three years after the law that licensed it.

Games and betting case prompts, the structure to use, and the first driver to check

Games and betting case prompts, the structure to use, and the first driver to check
Prompt	Structure hint	First driver to check
A mobile game's revenue is up but it loses money. Why?	Lifetime value against cost per install, by channel and country; store fees; live operations cost	Cost per install against value per install
Should a publisher bring its console game to mobile?	Players reached, monetisation model, cost to adapt, store fees, risk to console sales	Payer conversion and spending in comparable mobile games
Should a sportsbook enter a newly legal US state?	Market size from handle, hold, tax, licence cost, promotion and marketing needed, rivals	Tax rate and how many years to pay back launch promotions
A betting group's profit fell after a tax rise. What now?	Revenue per player, tax, promotions, marketing, product mix, prices and limits	Which products and countries the tax hits, and how much can be offset
Should a sovereign fund buy a game studio?	Pipeline of games, live service revenue, hits, talent, price, platform risk	Share of revenue from live services, and the next major release

So-what

In games, start with players and what they are worth. In betting, start with the law and the tax, then the customer economics.

Run the case: Same bets, different tax: where should a sportsbook spend its marketing? All lessons in Video games and betting: publishers, platforms, sportsbooks and lotteries

Using this in a case

Ask: which platforms and countries; how the product earns (buy once, free to play, subscription, betting margin); retention and payer conversion, or handle and hold; the store fee or tax rate; cost to win a customer; what rule changes are coming.
Calculate: value per install against cost per install; revenue kept after store fees; gross gaming revenue, net revenue and contribution after tax and marketing; payback on launch promotions in a new market.
Say: name the driver and the rule. For example, "Each new bettor costs more to win than they bring back in this state, because tax takes half the revenue. I would cut promotions here and move budget to lower-tax states."

Common traps

Reaching for a generic framework instead of the real driver: the value of a player against the cost of winning them, the share taken by stores or tax, and the rules. Treating handle as revenue. Assuming a hit game's sales will repeat with the next one. Ignoring that store fees and betting taxes change by country and by court ruling. Sizing a betting market without asking whether it is legal, or for how long.

Read the brief and related industries

The video games and betting brief puts this industry on one page. Media and streaming, sports and live events, and internet platforms have their own modules and briefs.

Video games and betting brief

Same pattern elsewhere

A game publisher spends years and large sums on a few titles, and the hits pay for the misses, like drug makers and chip designers. The long-cycle research pattern lists the questions to ask in any of them.

The long-cycle research pattern

Timed math drill

Flutter had revenue of USD 16,383 million in 2025 and spent USD 3,678 million on sales and marketing. What share of revenue went on sales and marketing, as a decimal? (Round to two decimals.)

Timed math drill

A UK online casino earned GBP 200 million of gross gaming yield. How much more duty does it pay a year at the new 40 percent rate than at the old 21 percent, in GBP million?

Check your understanding

A sovereign fund pays a high price for a game publisher. What is the biggest risk to check?

Check your understanding

Why do prediction markets matter to US sportsbooks?

Terms in this lesson

Enterprise value (EV) and EV/EBITDA Synergy Due diligence Market share LBO (leveraged buyout)Cannibalization

Sources for this lesson (21)

My notes on this lesson

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Next: put this module into practice

You have read every lesson in this module. A full case puts them to work, with a model answer to compare against.

Run the case: Same bets, different tax: where should a sportsbook spend its marketing? All lessons in Video games and betting: publishers, platforms, sportsbooks and lotteries

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